Ron Riveras fate has long been sealed, but dont expect his firing just yet
LANDOVER, Md. — Ron Rivera understood the score before the season began.
New ownership officially purchased the Washington Commanders one day before the 2023 training camp commenced in late July. The group, led by managing partner Josh Harris, had zero time to affect any football decisions. They would the following offseason.
Advertisement
Unless the team, at a minimum, achieved its first winning season since 2016, Rivera’s four-year tenure as head coach and front-office lead would end, and new football people would take over. If that’s how the scenario unfolded, Rivera wanted it known he had left the situation better than how he found it.
“If we go 8-8-1 this year and (Harris) fires me, and next year they win the division and 40 of the 53 players we drafted and it’s the same quarterback, I’m vindicated,” Rivera told ESPN in August. “Send me my Super Bowl ring.”
Four months later, including nine losses in 13 regular-season games, don’t expect the next brain trust to send Rivera a thank-you card. The roster’s improvement, sincere at times over the past four years, has faded. This team doesn’t need a retool or a refresh, but a rebuild. The final four contests won’t change that assessment, whether Rivera stays through Week 18 or not.
The idea of Rivera finishing the season is unacceptable to some fans, who are outraged by a year that began with optimism following the ownership change, a projected top-10 defense and the prospect of quarterback Sam Howell succeeding. They point to zero campaigns with a winning record in the four seasons under Rivera. Two assistants were fired last week, including defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. Rivera can go as well now, right?
The expected outcome — that Rivera will finish the year — won’t be a crowd-pleaser. But there’s no good reason to fire Rivera before Week 18 beyond giving the angry an emotional sugar high. The damage is done.
The latest gloomy indicator occurred in rainy and foggy conditions — a fitting metaphor — at FedEx Field on Sunday. This was a name-your-score situation for the visiting Miami Dolphins. The team that tallied 70 in a single game earlier this season could have sniffed 60 if desired. With their aqua-, orange- and white-clad supporters dominating the lower bowl of the stadium, the AFC contender settled on 45-15.
Advertisement
“They came in here and did what they had to do,” wide receiver Terry McLaurin said, “and we didn’t really have a response.”
Washington, now 4-9, has lost four consecutive games and has been outscored 90-25 in the last two entering its Week 14 bye. Even worse, the latest blowout wasn’t surprising, nor was it the product of a poor game plan. That’s arguably the biggest indictment of the Rivera era.
At least the eventual 35-point setback against Dallas on Thanksgiving Day included a competitive first half. On Sunday, Tyreek Hill’s electric 78-yard touchdown catch on the Dolphins’ third play from scrimmage ended upset thoughts for the home team, a 9.5-point underdog.
Even the historically optimistic coach acknowledged after the game that talking about silver linings like growth and development was challenging.
“It is, to be frank about it,” Rivera said following Washington’s fourth consecutive loss, which began with a 31-7 halftime deficit. “When you spot (a large lead) to a very good football team, you’re going to struggle to win a game.”
Ron Rivera on what went wrong pic.twitter.com/ulw29w6CP6
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) December 3, 2023
This roster is filled almost exclusively with players acquired since Rivera’s hiring in January 2020. The lack of game-changers and steady contributors squashes any possible case that the overall talent floor has been raised.
Do a side-by-side comparison with the squad Rivera inherited. The same star players were there — McLaurin, defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne — but the overall list of impact players is shorter. That’s partly due to the midseason trades of defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young for a pair of 2024 Day 2 draft picks. Another factor: You could argue Washington has added zero blue-chip players under Rivera.
Advertisement
Some coaching staffs can do more with less. But the argument for that notion applying to this group left long before the Dolphins did as they desired on Sunday. Even the vital pieces aren’t producing as expected.
McLaurin finished without a catch for the second time in his five-year career. Asked about frustration with zilch on three targets, McLaurin told reporters, “Nah, I ran a lot of cardio.”
Rivera took over defensive play-calling responsibilities after firing Del Rio. The mechanics seemed to work, with Rivera making decisions and linebackers coach Steve Russ relaying the play to linebacker Cody Barton. The desire to find solutions by simplifying the call sheet did not.
Miami finished with a 406-245 edge in total yards. Hill tacked on a 60-yard touchdown catch and finished with 157 yards on five receptions. The Dolphins also contributed to Howell’s physical toll with three sacks and nine QB hits, not to mention the attempted tackles on his two touchdown runs.
“It’s been a tough couple of weeks,” Howell said.
And yet … relieving Rivera of his duties before the Week 18 home rematch with the Cowboys would matter little. Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s primary role is to help Howell’s development. Promoting him to interim head coach would complicate his daily schedule and likely offer false hope of him getting the full-time job.
New voices are coming to the organization after the season. New hires, new players, new across the board. That’s when change will come. Will they believe in Howell long term? Or find better ways to use these players? Or, as Rivera did, have the team attempt a 53-yard field goal down 23 points in the second half? We’ll see.
For now, that growth and development chatter has lost oomph.
“To me, I’ll say it sounds like words now,” running back Antonio Gibson said. “We’re not going to keep saying that in the back end of this season. It’s too late for growth right now. … We can finish off the season strong and head into next year with growth, but it’s too late for that right now.”
Advertisement
Fans have endured many losses and much angst over the past two decades. Therefore, it might not be fair to suggest that patience is necessary. But that’s the message from Harris — and an appropriate one.
“I have a public track record with Philly and New Jersey, and generally, when you change a system, sometimes you have to do it,” Harris said at Sports Business Journal’s Dealmakers conference Thursday in D.C., according to the Washington Post, “(But) you probably take a step back before you take a step forward. That’s not always the case, but I think generally that’s what the statistics would show. So I think it’s important to be patient.”
“In sports, there’s pressure. There’s pressure from the public, but people aren’t always thinking about that long game of, ‘What are you trying to accomplish?’ And what we’re trying to accomplish is we want to have elite teams that consistently compete for championships.”
Everyone wants that. The wait continues. Whether Rivera is fired now or in early January matters little. There’s a massive overhaul looming for the coaching staff, front office and roster. Several players are worth keeping, of course. Running back Brian Robinson has ascended. Time must be given for high draft picks to improve — and for Harris to make moves.
Unloading Rivera isn’t one of them. Not until January. Let Bieniemy work with Howell. Trust that players will return from the bye week focused. That’s all that can happen now.
“It ain’t no magic words, no special potion,” safety Kamren Curl said of playing better. “We’ve gotta keep going. Don’t quit.”
At this point, everyone recognizes change must occur.
Asked about possible fixes, Allen replied, “That’s a great question. I have no idea.”
There’s an obvious one. It’s coming. The score is evident. Hang in there until Harris acts, even if you’re tired of waiting for the team’s next Super Bowl ring.
(Photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57lGpncmtjbXxzfJFsZmpqX2WAcL7Op2Sroaaav6J5wqikppmembKzv4ydpqWomJ67tHnJqJlmq5WYwrO107Jm